written by: Brady Kas and Garric Mathias

For the first time ever, the entire Division I NCAA Tournament will be held in Indiana. To mark this momentous occasion for the state, the Sports Innovation Institute wanted to help interested Hoosiers fill out their bracket for March Madness this year. This post is part of a 4-part series that is analyzed and written by the SII Data Analyst team to help you get ahead of the curve and have a leg up in your bracket pool using the power of data analysis. Today in this post I’ll be talking about sports betting, and how to bet the spread for every first-round game.

Reminder: While we can use data as a resource to create educated guesses on potential outcomes, this does NOT guarantee a particular result. Please do not take any tournament analysis as fact.

In today’s world, it’s hard to argue the rapid growth and acceleration of sports betting. With the use of technology, sports betting has become easier than ever using apps such as Fanduel and DraftKings, and fans are able to bet on almost anything and everything when it comes to a sports game. Today, I want to spend my time detailing to you how teams in this year’s tournament have done against the point spread (ATS), and hopefully, together we’ll be able to make a few bucks.

Before I go any farther, I want to note I’ll be using the numbers and spreads from the betting sites TeamRankings.com and Covers.com. With that being said, these numbers can fluctuate daily, so the numbers may not be the exact same, but they’re very close. I highly recommend checking these places out if you find this article interesting and want some more knowledge on this topic.

First Four

West Region:

#16 Appalachian State (-3) Vs. #16 Norfolk State

Appalachian State – Record: 17-11 (ATS: 14-9-5, ATS Favorite: 5-5-3, ATS Underdog: 9-4-2)

Norfolk State – Record: 16-7 (ATS: 12-8-3, ATS Favorite: 8-5-1, ATS Underdog: 4-3-2)

Key Stats: Appalachian State is 5-5 in their last ten games ATS, and in that span, five of those times they have been favored. The Mountaineers went 1-4 in those games. In Norfolk State’s last ten games, they’ve been an underdog two times, and went 2-0 in those games. Bet the Spartans.

#11 Drake (+2) Vs. #11 Wichita State

Drake – Record: 25-4 (ATS 20-6-3, ATS Favorite: 18-4-2, ATS Underdog: 2-2-1)

Wichita State – Record: 16-5 (ATS: 9-9-3, ATS Favorite: 5-7-2, ATS Underdog: 4-2-1)

Key Stats: Drake has the second-best record in the nation this year ATS, and the best in this tournament as Navy, who is number one, did not qualify. However, they boast just a 7-6-1 record ATS in their last fifteen games after starting the season 13-0. While the Shockers have struggled overall ATS this year, in games in which they are a 5.5-point favorite or fewer, they are 4-2. I think this will be a close game, but Drake pulls it off in the end.

East Region:

#16 Texas Southern (-2) Vs. #16 Mount Saint Mary’s

Texas Southern – Record: 16-8 (ATS: 12-10-2, ATS Favorite: 7-7-1, ATS Underdog: 5-3-1)

Mount Saint Mary’s – Record: 12-10 (ATS: 11-10-1, As Favorite: 7-5, ATS Underdog: 4-5-1)

Key Stats: Texas Southern are winners of nine in a row, and in that span, have gone 7-2 ATS. After a tough start, they seem to have put the pieces together. Mount Saint Mary’s this year has been in plenty of tight games, at least against the spread, and in games in which the Mountaineers were three points or fewer favorites/underdogs, they went 5-6 in those contests. Texas Southern wins by double digits.

#11 Michigan State (-1.5) Vs. #11 UCLA

Michigan State – Record: 15-12 (ATS: 9-18, ATS Favorite: 3-11, ATS Underdog: 6-7)

UCLA – Record: 17-9 (ATS: 12-14, ATS Favorite: 10-11, ATS: Underdog: 2-3)

Key Stats: Coach Izzo’s Spartans went through one of the worst stretches in basketball this season when they went 2-14 ATS over a 16-game stretch. The rest of the season: 7-4 ATS, including a 5-3 record to close out the regular season and B10 tournament. The Bruins are the opposite. They started out their season 9-3 ATS and have struggled mightily to finish the season going only 3-11 ATS in their last fourteen. Give me Sparty.

First Round

West Region:

#1 Gonzaga (N/A) Vs. #16 Appalachian State/Norfolk State

Gonzaga – Record: 26-0 (ATS: 12-12-2, ATS Favorite: 12-2-2, ATS Underdog: N/A)

Appalachian State/Norfolk State – (See above)

Key Stats: While there’s a 99% chance Gonzaga will win this game, I’m not sure if that’s who I would bet on for the spread. While no spread is out, I think it’s safe to say the Zags will probably be around a 25-point favorite for this one. In games with this big of a spread in the season, Gonzaga finished with just a 3-8 record ATS. However, I think the Bulldogs come out and prove their worthiness of this number one seed. I like Gonzaga to win and cover.

#8 Oklahoma (-2) Vs. #9 Missouri

Oklahoma – Record: 15-10 (ATS: 12-13, ATS Favorite: 5-11, ATS Underdog: 7-2)

Missouri – Record: 16-9 (ATS: 12-13, ATS Favorite: 6-9, ATS Underdog: 6-4)

Key Stats: The Sooners have struggled this year as the favorite. They have an actual record of 11-5 in these games but are just 5-11 ATS. Missouri has had a bit more success as the underdog themselves but are just 3-7 in their last ten ATS. I like the Sooners in a close one.

#5 Creighton (-8) Vs. #12 UC Santa Barbara

Creighton – Record: 20-8 (ATS: 13-15, ATS Favorite: 11-14, ATS Underdog: 2-1)

UC Santa Barbara – Record: 22-4 (ATS: 14-10-2, ATS Favorite: 13-9-1, ATS: Underdog: 1-1-1)

Key Stats: Creighton has been favored in 90% of their games this season, and this first round is no different. The Bluejays were 8-point favorites or fewer in eleven games this year and covered the spread five of those times. The Gauchos of UC Santa Barbara made their way into the tournament by dominating their opponents this year. They too have been favored a high majority of the time, and in the games they were the underdog, they did have one outright win, and were within three points in the others. Creighton wins the game, but UC Santa Barbara covers.

#4 Virginia (-10) Vs. #13 Ohio

Virginia – Record: 18-6 (ATS: 11-12-1, ATS Favorite: 11-10-1, ATS Underdog: 0-1)

Ohio – Record: 15-7 (ATS: 15-7, ATS Favorite: 9-5, ATS Underdog: 6-2)

Key Stats: Virginia is a team that has recently caught COVID-19, and its unsure who will actually be able to play in this game. Ten points is a big number against this Ohio team, and they have gotten hot as the season has gone along winning nine of their last ten and covering the spread in all nine of those wins. This Bobcat team is dangerous, and I like them upsetting the reigning National Champs.

#6 USC (N/A) Vs. #11 Wichita State/Drake

USC – Record: 22-7 (ATS: 16-13, ATS Favorite: 14-10, ATS Underdog: 2-3)

Wichita State/Drake – (See above)

Key Stats: My guess is the Trojans will probably be around a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup, and that should favor them. They have a solid record of 5-3 this year ATS when favored by fewer than five points. I think if Drake were to win, they could challenge this USC team, if Wichita State wins, I like the Trojans.

#3 Kansas (-11) Vs. #14 Eastern Washington

Kansas – Record: 20-8 (ATS: 14-12-2, ATS Favorite: 11-9-1, ATS Underdog: 3-3-1)

Eastern Washington – Record: 16-7 (ATS: 15-7-1, ATS Favorite: 12-6, ATS Underdog: 3-1-1)

Key Stats: Kansas is another team that has unfortunately been hit recently with COVID-19. Once again, we’re unsure of who will be able to play, and how effective they will be if they do. Eastern Washington posts a top 20 cover percentage this year, and I think they could keep this game closer than people think. This won’t be an easy game for the Jayhawks, but I like them to pull away late in the game and cover.

#7 Oregon (-5) Vs. #10 VCU

Oregon – Record: 20-6 (ATS: 14-12, ATS Favorite: 13-10, ATS Underdog: 1-2)

VCU – Record: 19-7 (ATS: 14-12, ATS Favorite: 10-8, ATS Underdog: 4-4)

Key Stats: The Oregon Ducks led by coach Dana Altman have closed out the regular season and Pac-12 tournament winning 10/12 and covering the spread in nine of those games. VCU is a tough team who will compete with the Ducks, but I think Oregon will pull away late and cover. The Rams are just 5-5 in their last ten ATS.

#2 Iowa (-15) Vs. #15 Grand Canyon

Iowa – Record: 21-8 (ATS: 15-13-1, ATS Favorite: 13-9-1, ATS Underdog: 2-4)

Grand Canyon – Record: 17-6 (ATS: 15-5-3, ATS Favorite: 10-5-2, ATS Underdog: 5-0-1)

Key Stats: This is one of the most interesting matchups I think in the first found. Iowa, led by Luke Garza, has been dominant at times this year, but at times, they have struggled against the spread. However, with that being said, the Hawkeyes are 4-1 in games this year where they were at least 15-point favorites. Now, the Antelopes post a top 5 cover percentage this year and are undefeated as the underdog this year. Led by a former Hoosier native and March Madness legend Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon could make some noise in this game. Grand Canyon covers, and if you’re looking for deep sleeper in this tournament, this could be your team.

East Region:

#1 Michigan (N/A) Vs. #16 Mount Saint Mary’s/Texas Southern – (see above)

Michigan – Record: 20-4 (ATS: 17-7, ATS Favorite: 16-7, ATS Underdog: 1-0)

Mount Saint Mary’s/Texas Southern – (See above)

Key Stats: The Wolverines are another one of the top teams in the country this year in terms of cover percentage and were favored in every game except one (@ Wisconsin). Michigan projects to be about a 25-point favorite in this one, and they were 0-1 ATS this year in games where they were favored by that many points. They’ll win the game no matter who they play, but I think Texas Southern has a chance to cover if they win, while Mount Saint Mary’s has no chance.

#8 LSU (PK) Vs. #9 Saint Bonaventure

LSU – Record: 18-9 (ATS: 13-13-1, ATS Favorite: 7-6-1, ATS Underdog: 6-7)

Saint Bonaventure – Record: 16-4 (ATS: 14-5-1, ATS Favorite: 10-3-1, ATS Underdog: 4-2)

Key Stats: This is a classic 8/9 matchup. A Pick’em where nobody is favored. When just looking at the overall spreads from the season, Saint Bonaventure has the edge. However, LSU is 7-2-1 in their last ten ATS, and could make some noise in this tournament. I like the Tigers.

#5 Colorado (-4) Vs. #12 Georgetown

Colorado – Record: 22-8 (ATS: 17-13, ATS Favorite: 15-9, ATS Underdog:  2-4)

Georgetown – Record: 13-12 (ATS: 16-9, ATS Favorite: 3-2, ATS Underdog: 13-7)

Key Stats: If we were to just look at season stats, this looks like a blow out on paper. The Buffalos have been dominant all year, and as the favorite ATS, they have a strong cover percentage of 63%. However, Georgetown has found their stride, and looks poised to make a run. The one thing we can’t measure in stats is momentum, and it seems as though the Hoyas are riding higher than anyone else. They’re 8-2 in their last ten ATS, and don’t be surprised if these Hoyas are your Cinderella this year. The Hoyas stay hot and win this game outright.

#4 Florida State (-10) Vs. #13 UNC-Greensboro

Florida State – Record: 16-6 (ATS: 11-9-2, ATS Favorite: 10-8-2, ATS Underdog: 1-1)

UNC-Greensboro – Record: 21-8 (ATS: 17-12, ATS Favorite: 16-10, ATS Underdog: 1-2)

Key Stats: Florida State under Leonard Hamilton seem to have flown under the radar for years but have gotten the recognition they deserve here recently. However, on the season they went just 6-5-2 ATS when favored by ten points or fewer, so this could be a tough game for the Seminoles. UNC-Greensboro has posted a decent spread record throughout the season, but most of those games had them as the favorite. In their three games they were the underdogs in, they won by nine, but then lost the other two by 13 and 18 points. I like the Seminoles in a blowout.

#6 BYU (N/A) Vs.#11 Michigan State/UCLA – (see above)

BYU – Record: 20-6 (ATS: 14-8-4, ATS Favorite: 10-8-2, ATS Underdog: 4-0-2)

Michigan State/UCLA – (See above)

Key Stats: I project BYU to be around a 3-point favorite for this matchup, which could be interesting. Both MSU and UCLA are obviously from the Power 5, and this will be interesting to see how they matchup against either school. The Cougars did play a few other major schools outside of their conference and faired pretty well. They lost to a strong USC team, but beat St. Johns, Utah, and San Diego State. I think BYU covers and wins, no matter which team they play.

#3 Texas (-9) Vs. #14 Abilene Christian

Texas – Record: 19-7 (ATS: 12-13-1, ATS Favorite: 7-10-1, ATS Underdog: 5-3)

Abilene Christian – Record: 23-4 (ATS: 17-6-4, ATS Favorite: 14-5-2, ATS Underdog: 3-1-2)

Key Stats: When looking at this Texas team, it’s a little deceiving when you look at their record against the spread. They went through a tough ten game stretch in the middle of their season where they were 1-8-1, but besides that, have been a fairly good team to bet on going 11-5, including a 5-0 record in their last five. The Wildcats of Abilene Christian are not to be taken lightly though. They boast an 8-2 spread record in their last ten and played a very competitive game against Texas Tech early in the year losing 44-51, but more importantly for our discussion, they covered the spread in that loss. The Longhorns have finished the season strong, and I like them to win and cover in this one.

#7 UConn (-4) Vs. #10 Maryland

UConn – Record: 15-7 (ATS: 16-5-1, ATS Favorite: 13-3, ATS Underdog: 3-2-1)

Maryland – Record: 16-13 (ATS: 12-16-1, ATS Favorite: 7-7, ATS Underdog: 5-9-1)

Key Stats: The Huskies come into the tournament as the number three team in the country in terms of cover percentage at 76.2%. In games where they were 5-point favorites or less, UConn covered 6/7 times, and they look to be formidable again in this tournament. Maryland this year has struggled against the spread but have struggled at an even higher rate as an underdog. This is not good news for them. In their last five games ATS as an underdog, they’re just 1-4. My money says UConn.

#2 Alabama (-17) Vs. #15 Iona

Alabama – Record: 24-6 (ATS: 17-12-1, ATS Favorite: 15-11-1, ATS Underdog: 2-1)

Iona – Record: 12-5 (ATS: 11-5-1, ATS Favorite: 9-4-1, ATS Underdog: 2-1)

Key Stats: The Crimson Tide have been a great story this year, and coach Nate Oats has done a great job with his team over the last two years. In games this year in which the Tide were favored by at least 10-points, they went 5-1-1 ATS. For Iona, legendary coach Rick Pitino became just the third coach to ever lead five different teams to the NCAA Tournament. After a season filled with COVID issues, including a six-week layoff, the Gaels have made it to the Big Dance. The only high-profile non-conference opponent Iona faced was Seton Hall, who they lost to by 22 in their first game. Roll Tide in this one.

South Region:

#1 Baylor (-24.5) Vs. #16 Hartford

Baylor – Record: 22-2 (ATS: 15-9, ATS Favorite: 15-9, ATS Underdog: N/A)

Hartford – Record: 15-8 (ATS: 14-8-1, ATS: Favorite: 7-3, ATS Underdog: 7-5-1)

Key Stats: For Baylor, I think you can divide their season into two parts: They started out the year 18-0, and had wins over Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Kansas. During this stretch, they won 16/18 games by double digits, and were 13-5 ATS. In their last six games, the Bears went just 4-2, and had just a 2-4 record ATS. As for Hartford, they probably do not have a realistic shot to win this game, however, they may have a shot to cover. In the two games this year where they were 20+ point underdogs, the Hawks went 1-1 ATS, but lost both games to UConn and Villanova. Baylor wins easily, but not by enough to cover the spread. Give me the Hawks.

#8 North Carolina (-1) Vs. #9 Wisconsin

North Carolina – Record: 18-10 ATS: 13-13-2, ATS Favorite: 11-9-1, ATS Underdog: 2-4-1)

Wisconsin – Record: 17-12 (ATS: 12-15-2, ATS Favorite: 10-12-1, ATS Underdog: 2-3-1)

Key Stats: The Tar Heels are back in the tournament this year marking it the 16^th time in 18 years under Roy Williams. UNC had a tough start to the season where they went just 4-9-1 ATS but were able to turn it around towards the middle of the season and finished the last 14 games going 9-4-1 ATS. The Badgers are a team that has limped into the tournament going 2-6 in their last eight games. In those games, they had a slightly better percentage at covering the spread going 2-5-1. I like the Tar Heels.

#5 Villanova (-6.5) Vs. #12 Winthrop

Villanova – Record: 16-6 (ATS: 11-10-1, ATS Favorite: 11-10-1, ATS Underdog: N/A)

Winthrop – Record: 23-1 (ATS: 13-11, ATS Favorite: 10-11, ATS Underdog: 3-0)

Key Stats: Villanova has been hit hard by the injury bug here recently. They’ve lost one of their top players in Connor Gillespie and have not looked the same without him. They’re just 3-6-1 in their last ten ATS. For Winthrop, I think this is the perfect matchup for them. Their record speaks for itself, and don’t get too distracted by their spread record. This seems like a classic 12-5 upset, and I like the Eagles.

#4 Purdue (-8) Vs. #13 North Texas

Purdue – Record: 18-9 (ATS: 14-11-2, ATS Favorite: 9-6-1, ATS Underdog: 5-5-1)

North Texas – Record: 17-9 (ATS: 15-9-2, ATS Favorite: 12-6-1, ATS Underdog: 3-3-1)

Key Stats: The Boilermakers have one of the youngest, and most exciting teams in the country. They accomplished the rarest of rare when they had four different players win freshman conference player of the week honors, and the future is definitely bright. As for this tournament, Purdue enters on a hot streak. They have a record of 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 after starting 3-7-1 ATS. For North Texas, they’ve won their last four ATS, and also boast an impressive 4-0 record at neutral sites. Earlier in the year, North Texas played two Power 5 schools in Arkansas and Mississippi State, and lost by 15 and 6 points, respectively. Boiler up in this one.

#6 Texas Tech (-4.5) Vs. #11 Utah State

Texas Tech – Record: 17-10 (ATS: 10-17, ATS Favorite: 9-14, ATS Underdog: 1-3)

Utah State – Record: 20-7 (ATS: 15-11-1, ATS Favorite: 14-8-1, ATS Underdog: 1-3)

Key Stats: The Red Raiders are just a few years removed from a Runner-up finish, and they’re looking to get back to the championship game. Tech has been successful this year on the court with their record, but ATS they’ve struggled. In games in which they were 5-point favorites or less, they went just 2-6 ATS. Statistically speaking, the Aggies have struggled in their past few games ATS. They have just a 4-6 record against the spread in their last ten, but my gut tells me this could be an upset. Look out for the Aggies.

#3 Arkansas (-8.5) Vs. #14 Colgate

Arkansas – Record: 22-5 (ATS: 17-9-1, ATS Favorite: 14-6-1, ATS Underdog: 3-3)

Colgate – Record: 14-1(ATS: 10-5, ATS Favorite: 10-5, ATS Underdog: N/A)

Key Stats: Arkansas has been one of my favorite teams to watch this year. Led by an animated coach in Eric Musselman, there hasn’t been a dull moment all season, and by the way, they’re also super talented. The Razorbacks have a 12-2 record in their last 14 games played, and they have posted a 10-4 record ATS during this same stretch. However, they’re going up against a super talented team in Colgate. The only blemish on their record is a two-point defeat in their second game of the season from Army. The Raiders have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games ATS, but I think this game goes beyond that. This is a Colgate team that has the manpower to win this game. As much as I like Arkansas and Coach Musselman, I think Colgate covers, but Arkansas finds a way to win.

#7 Florida (PK) Vs. #10 Virginia Tech

Florida – Record: 14-9 (ATS: 10-13, ATS Favorite: 7-8, ATS Underdog: 3-5)

Virginia Tech – Record: 15-6 (ATS: 11-10, ATS Favorite: 7-8, ATS Underdog: 4-2)

Key Stats: After everything the Gators went through early in the season, it’s amazing they have battled to get to where they are today. However, they have not fared well recently ATS. They post just a 3-7 record in their last ten games and were just a couple points away from being 1-9. For the Hokies, they’ve faired a little better here recently going 4-6 in their last ten ATS. This is a true Pick’em game, but I got Virginia Tech in a close one.

#2 Ohio State (-17) Vs. #15 Oral Roberts

Ohio State – Record: 21-9 (ATS: 17-12-1, ATS Favorite: 10-10, ATS Underdog: 7-2-1)

Oral Roberts – Record: 16-10 (ATS: 14-9-2, ATS Favorite: 5-6-1, ATS Underdog: 9-3-1)

Key Stats: Ohio State has been a little bit of a trendy team this year. They had a stretch in the year where they won 10/11 games, but then followed that by losing four in a row. Now, part of this is due to the competition in the Big Ten, but it looks like the Buckeyes may have figured it out a little bit in the conference tournament. Oral Roberts is a tough team, but I don’t think they have enough to pull off the upset. With being said, in games this year where they were 15-point underdogs or more, they were 3-0 ATS, but lost all three games. Buckeye’s win, but Oral Roberts covers.

Midwest Region:

#1 Illinois (-21) Vs. #16 Drexel

Illinois – Record: 23-6 (ATS: 18-10-1, ATS Favorite: 14-9-1, ATS Underdog: 4-1)

Drexel – Record: 12-7 (ATS: 12-5-2, ATS Favorite: 7-3-2, ATS Underdog: 5-2)

Key Stats: This season, the Illini are the second best B10 team in terms of cover percentage, and they look to continue this trend into the tournament. Illinois is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games, and in games this year in which they were favored by 20+ points, they were 2-0 ATS. Drexel has played well here lately winning the CAA conference tournament and earning the automatic bid. They’re 3-0-1 in their last four ATS, and in their one game earlier in the year where they played a Power 5 school, they lost by nine, but covered. However, I like the Illini to win and cover in this one.

#8 Loyola-Chicago (-2) Vs. #9 Georgia Tech

Loyola Chicago – Record: 24-4 (ATS: 16-9-1, ATS Favorite: 16-8-1, ATS Underdog: 0-1)

Georgia Tech – Record: 17-8 (ATS: 15-10, ATS Favorite: 7-6, ATS Underdog: 8-4)

Key Stats: Loyola-Chicago and Sister Jean were the Cinderella in this tournament just a few years ago, but now, they’re the favorite in the First Round. The Ramblers are 17-1 in their last 18 games but are only 11-6-1 ATS in that stretch. Georgia Tech is another team in this tournament who is riding on their momentum. After winning the ACC tournament, Tech moved up to the nine-seed, and this is a favorable spot for them. The Yellow Jackets post a 67% cover percentage this year as underdogs, but I like Loyola-Chicago and Sister Jean in this one.

#5 Tennessee (-9) Vs. #12 Oregon State

Tennessee – Record: 18-8 (ATS: 13-12-1, ATS Favorite: 13-11-1, ATS Underdog: 0-1)

Oregon State – Record: 17-12 (ATS: 19-9-1, ATS Favorite: 6-4-1, ATS Underdog: 13-5)

Key Stats: Statistically speaking, the 5 vs.12 matchups are where underdogs tend to shine. According to an article from Draft Kings, since 1985, there have been 140 of these matchups, and the twelve seed has won 50 of these games. So, with those odds, it’s more than likely one will happen this year. Give me the Beavers of Oregon State who are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games and have plenty of momentum after winning their conference tournament.

#4 Oklahoma State (-8) Vs. #13 Liberty

Oklahoma State – Record: 20-8 (ATS: 17-10-1, ATS Favorite: 5-6-1, ATS Underdog: 12-4)

Liberty – Record: 23-5 (ATS: 16-8-4, ATS Favorite: 12-7-2, ATS Underdog: 4-1-2)

Key Stats: Oklahoma State has been a powerhouse all year, and I was shocked to see them seeded this low in the tournament. Cade Cunningham, the likely No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA Draft, has reshaped the Cowboys in one season. While there’s no denying OK State has been better this year as the underdog, they are 8-1 in their last nine ATS. As for Liberty, here’s the thing. I really do think they are a good squad, and could make a run, but not against Oklahoma State. The Flames do have some experience in playing Power 5 teams this year going 2-3 in those contests, but both wins came against teams who didn’t qualify for this tournament. Cowboys win in a blowout.

#6 San Diego State (-2) Vs. #11 Syracuse

San Diego State – Record: 22-4 (ATS: 14-12, ATS Favorite: 12-10, ATS Underdog: 2-2)

Syracuse – Record: 16-9 (ATS: 12-13, ATS Favorite: 9-7, ATS Underdog: 3-6)

Key Stats: San Diego State is another team I like a lot in this tournament. Their record this year ATS isn’t great, but they were double digit favorites in most of their conference games, which made them a bad team to bet on. In games this year where they were 5-point favorite or less, SDSU went 2-0. However, the Aztecs need to be careful in this first game. The Orange and Coach Boeheim are notorious for making runs as higher seeds in this tournament. Syracuse has struggled this year as the underdog ATS, but keep in mind Syracuse is in their midst of their best stretch this year covering the spread in each of their last four games. After saying all that, I think I still like the Aztecs to cover and win.

#3 West Virginia (-10.5) Vs. #14 Morehead State

West Virginia – Record: 18-9 (ATS: 13-14. ATS Favorite: 9-11, ATS Underdog: 4-3)

Morehead State – Record: 23-7 (ATS: 19-9-2, ATS Favorite: 7-6-1, ATS Underdog: 12-3-1)

Key Stats: West Virginia has had a very inconsistent year this year ATS. They’ve never covered in more than three straight games, and never didn’t cover in more than three straight games. In games this year where they were 10-point favorites or more, the Mountaineers went just 4-7 ATS, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend continue. For Morehead State, they have ranked near the top all season in terms of underdog cover percentage at 80%. The Eagles are winners of seven in a row and have covered the spread in four of those games, however, Morehead State went 2-0 ATS as an underdog during that same stretch. The Eagles cover and win the game outright.

#7 Clemson (-2) Vs. #10 Rutgers

Clemson – Record: 16-7 (ATS: 11-11-1, ATS Favorite: 8-6-1, ATS Underdog: 3-5)

Rutgers – Record: 15-11 (ATS: 13-12-1, ATS Favorite: 8-7-1, ATS Underdog: 5-5)

Key Stats: Clemson started out the year hot, winning five straight games, and covering in all five as well. Since then, the Tigers are just 6-11-1 ATS. The Scarlet Knights are in a very similar position, however, their streak came in the middle of season, where they went 5-1 ATS over six games. Both teams have cooled off after starting the season 5-0 and 6-0 respectively, and I could see this game being close. Give me Rutgers covering in the end.

#2 Houston (-18) Vs. #15 Cleveland State

Houston – Record: 24-3 (ATS: 18-8-1, ATS Favorite: 17-8-1, ATS Underdog: 1-0)

Cleveland State – Record: 19-7 (ATS: 17-8-1, ATS Favorite: 10-5-1, ATS Underdog: 7-3)

Key Stats: The Cougars from Houston are an exciting team to watch, and no doubt earned this No. 2 seed. They proved they could beat big competition when they beat Texas Tech, Boise State, and Wichita State. In games this year where Houston was a 15-point favorite or more, the Cougars went 6-2 ATS. However, Cleveland State should not be overlooked. They boast a top 25 cover percentage in all of college basketball and have strived as the underdog this year. The Cougars win, but Cleveland State covers.

To wrap everything up, I created this table that I think illustrates how teams perform against the spread a little bit easier than above. However, I simplified this table to just teams, overall ATS record, and spread for the first game.

Hopefully, you’re able to enjoy the tournament, and win a few bucks off of these picks, but just remember this one thing: good teams win, but great teams cover.

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The Sports Innovation Institute is leveraging the expertise of faculty and students across the IUPUI campus​, the Sports Innovation Institute blends academic thinking with an entrepreneurial spirit to create new products and research that help solve important problems in the sports industry.

  Written By: Kevin Feller

With the beginning of the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament days away, and many people preparing to fill in their brackets, the underlying question always presents itself; How good are these teams’ conferences compared to the competition they will be facing? The ranking system is flawed in many ways due to the fact that some teams face tougher competition throughout their seasons than others. A good example would be Gonzaga compared to Baylor and/or Illinois. It is hard to tell which team is the better team. Gonzaga is undefeated, but the majority of their schedule is against teams that do not compare in skill or talent. Illinois and Baylor, on the other hand, regularly face teams that are close in skill and talent each week. The focus from here is to compare the Power Five conferences and the BIG EAST to see the strength of their schedules and which conference has the upper hand going into tournament play.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

 The BIG 12 currently has seven teams ranked in the top 25. Those teams are (2) Baylor, (10) West Virginia, (11) Kansas, (12) Oklahoma State, and (13) Texas, Texas Tech (20),  and (25) Oklahoma. This is the highest number of teams any conference has in the top 25. When looking at the strength of schedule of the BIG 12, there are two teams out of the top ten hardest schedules. Those teams are Kansas and Baylor. After that, the remaining teams are ranked in the mid to late teens and twenties. From this data you can conclude that the BIG 12 has a tough conference play but does not compare to the BIG TEN. 

• A bold prediction is that BIG 12 teams have the potential to compete with BIG TEN teams and make it deep into the tournament, with at least one team making it to the final four.

BIG EAST

The BIG EAST currently has two teams ranked in the top 25. Those teams are (10) Villanova and (14) Creighton. When looking at the strength of schedule in the BIG EAST, Villanova has the toughest schedule which is ranked approximately 27th in the country. All other BIG EAST teams rank behind that in the 30s and 40s. Villanova has had success in the tournament in the past, but based on the strength of schedule, I would not expect anything special from the BIG EAST this tournament. 

• A bold prediction would be that no BIG EAST teams will make it to the elite eight. Too many other conferences are better this year and it will show in the tournament.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

 The BIG TEN currently has five teams ranked in the top 25. Those teams are (3) Illinois, (4) Michigan, (5) Iowa, (9) Ohio State, and (20) Purdue. This is the second highest number of teams from any other conference in men’s college basketball. When looking at the strength of schedule the BIG TEN faced this season, the top five hardest schedules were all from the BIG TEN conference. and eight of the ten toughest schedules were from the BIG TEN. What this shows is the overall strength of each team in the BIG TEN conference. From here, you can conclude that BIG TEN teams have a greater advantage over other teams in the tournament due to the difficult opponents they faced throughout this season. 

• A bold prediction is that multiple BIG TEN teams will make it to the final four.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

The ACC currently has three teams ranked in the top 25. Those teams are (15) Florida State, (16) Virginia, and (22) Virginia Tech. When looking at the strength of schedule for the ACC, Clemson had the toughest schedule ranked around 25th in the country. After Clemson, the strength of the remaining tails off greatly. The strength of the ACC is similar to the BIG EAST, so I would not expect too much from the teams in the ACC.

• A bold prediction would be that the ACC will have a team make it to the elite eight.

SOUTH EASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC) 

The SEC currently has two teams ranked in the top 25, and neither of these teams is Kentucky! They are 6) Alabama and (8) Arkansas. The strength of schedule for the SEC was tough this year with Kentucky having the 13th hardest schedule in the country. The remaining SEC teams’ schedules were ranked in the late teens through the mid 20s. After the BIG TEN and the BIG 12, the SEC had the toughest schedule for conference play making many of those teams’ sleepers in the tournament. 

• A bold prediction is that an SEC team will make it to the final four, with Alabama or unranked LSU being the front runners.

PAC 12 CONFERENCE

The PAC 12 currently has two teams in the top 25. Those teams are (23) Colorado, and (24) University of Southern California (USC). The strength of schedule for the PAC 12 was awful this year. Colorado had the 50th hardest schedule in the country followed by USC at 51st. This conference did not have the fire power they usually have on their rosters this year. 

• A bold prediction for the PAC 12 would be that no teams make it to the sweet sixteen.

THE REMAINING TEAMS

There are four teams remaining from conferences outside of the power five. These teams are (1) Gonzaga, (7) Houston, (18) Loyola Illinois, and (19) San Diego State. The toughest schedule from these teams were Gonzaga at 40th in the country and Houston at 77th in the country. That is why it is hard to compare these teams to the BIG TEN and PAC 12. 

• A bold prediction is that no team will see the elite eight, including Gonzaga.

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 The Sports Innovation Institute is leveraging the expertise of faculty and students across the IUPUI campus​, the Sports Innovation Institute blends academic thinking with an entrepreneurial spirit to create new products and research that help solve important problems in the sports industry.

Source of Rankings and Strength of Schedule:

 NCAA College Basketball Polls, College Basketball Rankings, NCAA Basketball Polls – ESPN. (2021, March 8). ESPN.Com. https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

NCAA College Basketball Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings. (2021, March 8). TeamRankings. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

   Written by Rick Matthews

For the first time ever, the entire Division I NCAA Tournament will be held in Indiana. To mark this momentous occasion for the state, the Sports Innovation Institute wanted to help interested Hoosiers fill out their bracket for March Madness this year. This post is part of a 4-part series that is analyzed and written by the SII Data Analyst team to help you get ahead of the curve and have a leg up in your bracket pool using the power of data analysis. This post will focus on the historical statistics, but stay tuned before the round of 64 begins for posts on 2021 conference strength in the tournament, 2021 first-round matchups by offensive/defensive efficiency, and teams who have done the best and worst at beating the spread in 2021.

Reminder: While we can use data as a resource to create educated guesses on potential outcomes, this does NOT guarantee a particular result. Please do not take any tournament analysis as fact. 

One of the most fun parts of the tournament is strategically selecting which upsets will happen and where. Looking back into the tournament’s history, there has only been one year (2007) where there has been fewer than 8 upsets throughout the tournament, given that there is more than a one seed difference between the two competing teams (e.g. a 2 beating a 1 seed is not considered an upset, but a 3 beating a 1 is considered an upset, and so on). The NCAA has already done a fantastic write-up on this topic and I suggest that you read the full article here, but here are some of the highlights:

• On average, the number of upsets that happen every round are halved. You probably should not be picking more upsets in the second round than in the first round, but if you are predicting 10 upsets in the first round, you should probably predict 4-6 upsets in the next round, and so on.
• A 10 beating a 7, an 11 beating a 6 and a 12 beating a 5 have incredibly similar upset frequency rates, with only a 3.5% difference between them. It is entirely plausible looking at historical data that more 12 seeds could beat 5s rather than 10s beat 7s.
  • Full First Round Upset Rates:
    • 10 over 7: 39.3% 
    • 11 over 6: 37.1%
    • 12 over 5: 35.7%
    • 13 over 4: 20.7%
    • 14 over 3: 15.0%
    • 15 over 2: 5.7%
    • 16 over 1: 0.7%
• Since the tournament field expanded to 64 in 1985, only eight 15 seeds have won against 2 seeds. However, four of those eight 15 seeds have happened in the last 10 years.  
• Roughly once every other year, an 8/9 seed knocks off a 1 seed in the Round of 32. The last tournament that was held in 2019 did NOT have an 8/9 seed beating a 1 seed. 

Next, let’s talk about conferences. Schools come and go throughout conferences and conference strength likes to fluctuate, so it is hard to draw conclusions of the 2021 conference by looking at results from the 80s. Therefore, I pulled the results of all conferences with at least one Final Four appearance from the last decade to see how they stacked up against each other.

The ACC and Big East immediately jump out as the top dogs, holding 80% of all championships since 2010. If you’re looking for a winner based on historical data, I would look at the top teams from these two conferences like Villanova and Virginia. Picking a winner is only a small part of filling out your bracket however. Looking at the Final Four data, 20% of all Final Four teams have come from the Big Ten, followed closely by the Big East and SEC. Don’t be afraid to take most if not all of your Final Four teams from this conference, especially considering how strong they have been throughout this year. The final major stat here is winning percentage, and the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten are the only major conferences sitting comfortably over a 60% winrate. Teams from these conferences seem to always show up, so feel confident picking them to win their games. 

These conferences are typically the powerhouses, but who are the conferences that are likely to cause some trouble as double-digit seeds? I collected some data on how many wins conferences have gotten from their double-digit seeds. 

Looking at this data, I immediately notice how strong the A10 is when they are given a double-digit seed. VCU has done a lot of heavy lifting for the conference, including a Final Four run as an 11 seed in 2011, but even if you were to exclude VCU, the conference still sits near the top of the table thanks to other solid performances by teams like Dayton, Richmond, and La Salle. A10 teams have done historically well when counted out early, so if you’re looking for potential upset specials, I would tend to favor the A10 teams. As of today, Joe Lunardi has VCU and St. Bonaventure currently in as 10 seeds in his current prediction, with Saint Louis being in the First Four Out. I like taking one of these potential teams in the Round of 64 and given VCU’s rich history of overperforming in the tournament this decade, I think that they probably have the best chance to do it. 

Another item that stood out to me was how disappointing the Big 12 has been as a double digit seed, racking up only 1 win in 10 years as a Power 5 Conference (shoutout to 2013 Iowa State). You might be better off picking the top ranked Big 12 schools like Baylor and Texas to win some games rather than some Big 12 bubble teams like Oklahoma. 

One final note is how well Xavier and Syracuse have performed last decade as a double-digit team. Both are bubble teams this year, so if they can get in, watch out! 

Unfortunately, my final section will not be long to write as I wanted to focus on the Indiana-specific teams that would be participating in this special Indiana edition of the tournament. Right now, it looks as if Purdue is the only in-state team that will participate this year. Purdue has made the last five tournaments but have only gotten to the Elite 8 once (2019). Matt Painter will be bringing in a very young team and will be playing with fans in the stands for the first time all season so it is hard to say what will happen, but when Purdue is a 4 seed or higher, they have always at least reached the Sweet 16 since 2012. When Purdue is lower than that, it spells trouble, so keep that in mind when the bracket releases. 

I hope you enjoyed these insights and have taken something from them, but remember that the SII Bracket Analysis has just begun! We have plenty more to come and they will be heavily focused on the current season, so stay tuned to watch us break down individual matchups and what the tournament could have in store after the brackets are released.   

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The Sports Innovation Institute is leveraging the expertise of faculty and students across the IUPUI campus​, the Sports Innovation Institute blends academic thinking with an entrepreneurial spirit to create new products and research that help solve important problems in the sports industry.