Photo from ESPN.
by Brady Kas, IUPUI sports management and analytics undergraduate student
Bowl Season has arrived, and for many fans of college football, this is the best time of the year. Over the next few weeks, we’ll see a total of 44 bowl games starting on Dec. 17 and finishing on Jan. 10, where we will crown a national champion, right here in Indianapolis, IN. To commemorate the event, the SII team here at IUPUI has decided to give college football fans a more in-depth look at some upcoming games we find interesting, and we’ll take a deeper look at some of the trends we saw throughout this past year as well. But to begin with, let’s start off with my favorite part of college football, and that’s the betting and gambling side of the sport. This article will focus solely on the New Year’s Six games, and we’ll spend a majority of the article talking about teams record against the spread (ATS) as well as their over/under performance this year, and we’ll sprinkle a few other details about each game. Let’s get started.
Before I begin, I do want to note all records, and point values are coming from teamrankings.com. These odds can change, and probably will change before the games begin, but if you want more information about these games, or other games, I highly recommend checking out the website.
Peach Bowl:
#10 Michigan State vs. #12 Pittsburgh
Odds: MSU -3, Over/Under: 56
This game for me is all about who’s playing for both teams. Spartans will be without their top player Kenneth Walker III, and Pitt will be without their starting QB Kenny Pickett, as both will take the time to prepare for the NFL Draft next Spring. The two teams have been great this year ATS, with MSU going 8-3-1, and Pittsburgh going 10-3-0, both good enough for Top-10 in the country. As I mentioned earlier, Walker III played a vital role in this Michigan State offense. This year he accounted for 1,646 of the teams 2,260 rushing yards, so will the Spartans be able to replicate his production in his absence? For Pitt, all Pickett did was throw for over 4,300 yards with 42 TD’s and only 7 INT’s and has cemented his place as a 1st round draft pick. I’m not a big fan of the spread in this game due to the missing pieces and the unknowns from both teams, however, I don’t expect a high scoring game. Just go back to their last meeting, as MSU was able to pull out a narrow 17-13 victory over the Panthers, and I expect similar game this time around. Stay away from the spread but give me the under.
Fiesta Bowl:
#5 Notre Dame vs. #9 Oklahoma State
Odds: Notre Dame -2, Over/Under: 45.5
With the departure of Brian Kelly to LSU, and the promotion of Marcus Freeman to head coach, it’s a new time in South Bend for the Fighting Irish. For the Cowboys of OSU, this is nothing new for them since Mike Gundy took over as their head coach in 2005. Since his arrival, this is the fifth New Year’s Six Bowl game that they have been a part of, going 1-3 in the previous four. However, that one win came in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl. Similarly, to the two teams in the Peach Bowl, both ND and OSU have a Top-10 record ATS and have made bettors plenty of money this year. However, both teams have struggled with the over/under this year. In games where the over/under was at 45.5 or higher this year Notre Dame went 5-6, and Oklahoma State went 4-7-1. The defense for both teams this year has played a huge role in their success, which is part of the reason why the over hasn’t hit as often as you would think. However, I believe the coaching change will provide a spark to this ND team. Tommy Reese staying was big for the offense, and the players can’t wait to play for Marcus Freeman. Give me the Irish at -2, and the over in this one.
Rose Bowl:
#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Utah
Odds: OSU -6.5, Over/Under: 65.5
Compared to the previous two teams, Ohio State and Utah have both been hard teams to bet on this year. With a record of 6-7-0 for Utah ATS and a record of 6-5-1 ATS for the Buckeyes, it’s been hard to find any real consistency with either team. From OSU’s point of view, the only time this year they weren’t a double-digit favorite was against Michigan, where of course they lost. For the Utes, they’ve been the favorites in all of their games this year besides a midseason contest with USC, but they easily handled the Trojans in that game. My question is how much do the Buckeyes care about this game. Yes, it’s the “Grand daddy of them all,” but for the first time under Ryan Day, they aren’t in the College Football Playoff. Utah on the other hand is making their first appearance in this game, however that Ohio State offense might be too much for them to handle. Ohio State is averaging 45.5 ppg this year, which is best in the nation, but Utah is no slouch scoring 35.1 ppg, ranking 19th in the nation. I think Utah hangs around, but Ohio State pulls it off in the end. I like the Buckeyes at -6.5, and the over.
Sugar Bowl:
#7 Baylor vs. #8 Ole Miss
Odds: Ole Miss -1, Over/Under: 55
When you look at the Rebels of Ole Miss and their record ATS this year, it can be misleading. Their just 7-4-1 this year ATS, but in games where they were favored by single digits or less (such as this one), they have a record of 4-1-0. On the flip side, Baylor has been the underdog this year in five of their contests, and they boast a 4-1-0 record as well ATS in those games. This might be a true pick’ em, and I would avoid betting this line in the game. Having Matt Corral will certainly help Ole Miss and their offense, but I still wouldn’t feel comfortable here ATS. When looking at the point total, I found an interesting stat when looking at the numbers for Ole Miss this year. In the first six games, Ole Miss played there was an average of 73.83 ppg between the two teams. Meaning lots of offense, and not a lot of defense. In their last six games, Ole Miss and their opponent are combining to score just 48 ppg. Granted the SEC is a tough place to play and score points, but that’s a big drop-off. Baylor is Top-20 this year in scoring defense allowing just 20.2 ppg to opponents, so the matchup doesn’t get any easier for Lane Kiffin and Co. Like I mentioned above, stay away from the spread in this one, but give me the under in a surprisingly low scoring game.
Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinal #1):
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Cincinnati
Odds: Alabama -13.5, Over/Under: 58
What Luke Fickell and his staff at Cincinnati have done since he arrived in 2017 is nothing short of miraculous. After going just 4-8 in his first season as the Bearcats head coach, Cincy won 11 games in both 2018 and 2019, went undefeated in the regular season last year before losing a close game to Georgia in the Peach Bowl, and of course are undefeated this year. Truly remarkable stuff from Fickell and his staff. In terms of betting, it’s hard to look at each team’s record ATS in this case because both teams are usually favored by double-digits, even in SEC play for Alabama. In terms of over/under, nothing big jumps out to me in this category either. Both teams are right around .500 on the year when it comes to hitting the point total, but once again for some of these games the line is just so high. One slight detail to note is that in games where Alabama’s point total was 60 or less, the over cashed four times. It’s something small but could be the difference in this game. Cincinnati ranks in the Top-10 this year in both scoring offense and scoring defense, making them a tough opponent for anybody, and Alabama ranks in the Top-10 in scoring offense, and comes in at No. 18 in scoring defense. I think the Bearcats cover, but a late touchdown by the Tide pushes the over, and Alabama moves on to play for a National Championship.
Orange Bowl (CFP Semifinal #2):
#2 Michigan vs. #3 Georgia
Odds: Georgia -7.5, Over/Under 45
This game is going to be a grinder. Georgia leads the nation in scoring defense allowing just 9.8 ppg this year, and Michigan is second allowing just 16.1 ppg this year. So, basing this off of season averages for each defense, the final score would be 16-10. For defensive gurus, this is your game. Granted I know that’s not how predicting a final score works, and the offenses of each team will play a major part, as both teams rank in the Top-10 in scoring offense this season, but the two defenses are just that good I think. Michigan boasts one of the best records in college football this year ATS going 11-2-0 on the season, and the only time they were an underdog, which was against Ohio State, they were able to pull out a victory. For the Bulldogs, the only other time this season they were less than 10-point favorites, they lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. So, what does this all mean for the game? I expect a low scoring game, with a final score of around 21-17 in favor of the Bulldogs. Give me Michigan to cover, and the under in this one.
That wraps up our betting guide to the New Year’s Six games, and I hope you enjoyed learning a little bit about each team. In the end, all we can do is sit back, and enjoy these bowl games, and hopefully we’ll have a few more bucks in our pockets to start out the new year. In the meantime, stay on the lookout as the rest of the SII team will be pushing out more articles as the Bowl Season moves along!
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