O'Neill School Undergraduate Thesis Blog – Page 13 – O'Neill Thesis Writers Sharing What They've Learned

Underlying Racial Disparities in PM2.5 Pollution

Posted on May 5, 2023 by safbeaty

Overview

Millions of people die each year around the world due to air pollution. Within the US there are tens of thousands of deaths and a majority of those are Black individuals despite Black people only making up roughly 13% of the US population. The US has worked to decrease its aggregate emissions, with focus on six criteria pollutants, over the last several decades. These reductions in emissions haven’t been felt evenly across the US; my data analysis found that between 1999 and 2020 there was a positive correlation between the percentage of Black people in a county and the average pollution of PM2.5. This reveals that despite the US’s success in reducing aggregate emissions, the US has not adequately addressed the environmental injustices around pollution and that Black people still face disproportionate pollution.

PM2.5 Pollution

Particulate matter as defined by the EPA “contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can be inhaled and cause serious health problems” (EPA). Particulate matter makes its way into the air in many ways such as directly from sources like construction sites, fields, unpaved roads, and smokestacks (EPA). Particulates can also form while in the air from chemicals that are being emitted into the air like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides and those are pollutants that end up in the air from power plants, automobiles, and industries (EPA). PM can cause health problems through getting into one’s lungs or even bloodstream (EPA). The short term effects can include coughing or sneezing or irritation of the throat and lungs. Long term effects can vary from asthma to decreased lung function to premature death in those with heart disease (EPA). PM2.5 also has environmental effects including making streams or lakes acidic, depleting soil of its nutrients, affecting an ecosystem’s overall biodiversity, and contributing to acid rain effects (EPA). The acid rain can be especially damaging as it can cause harm to buildings, structures, and statues when it falls which can be disastrous if it falls on culturally, historically, or religiously important objects or structures.

Pollution Decreases

Interestingly enough, our overall aggregate emissions of the main criteria pollutants have decreased. Air pollution really took off after World War 2 in the mid 1900s when personal transportation (cars) became more popular, there was a surge in population (hence the Baby Boomer generation name), and suburbanization grew rapidly. The Clean Air Act was passed in 1970 so, when evaluating changes in air pollution we are really just looking at roughly a 50 year time period – 1970 to now. Overall, looking at 1970 to 2020 we see a 78% decrease in aggregate emissions for the six common pollutants (EPA). These decreases have come from a combination of efforts and policies. The EPA has required dramatic reductions in emissions from new motor vehicles and non-road engines. This has been accomplished in two parts – with cleaner engine technologies and cleaner fuel usages (EPA).

Historical Decisions Impacting Communities Now

Historical redlining has played a major role in the environmental injustices seen today throughout the country in the form of disproportionate air pollution rates. Redlining was a racially discriminatory practice back in the 1930s that classified cities in one of four ways. The worst grade was given to many Black/immigrant communities simply due to the presence of those individuals. These decisions resulted in isolation for those minority communities, difficulty building wealth for the citizens in those minority communities, and led governments to designate those minority communities as sites for hazardous industries. Hazardous industries in and near those communities would obviously result in disparities in pollution for those communities compared to richer communities of white people farther away. These hazardous industries were then able to grow and continue polluting as the decades went on leading to prolonged health effects and high rates of pollution in these designed “bad grade” communities. The pollution disparities seen today are strikingly similar to the ways in which 1930s neighborhoods were designated indicating a clear connection between the racist decisions made almost 100 years ago and the disproportionate pollution today.

Data

Pollution data was collected from EPA’s website. The pollution data included measurements of PM2.5 taken from different sites in counties from every state for every year from 1999 to 2022. The demographic data came from SEER (National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program) and contained racial makeup of each county from 1999 to 2020 categorized as white, Black or other race. The data was organized which involved removing unnecessary information and creating columns that contained the percentage of each race’s makeup for each county. All of this data was merged into one dataset in order to complete regression analysis.

The regression analysis showed the exact effect of the percentage of Black people in a county in a given year on the average pollution for the same county, state, and year. After performing that regression, the summary of the model gave the following information: 13,561 observations for 142 counties in 50 states over 22 years, adjusted R2: 0.61674. When all of the data points were plotted regardless of county/state/year indicators, the graph looked like this:

Moving forward with decreasing pollution, greater emphasis needs to be put on targeting specific sources of pollution in specific counties where the levels of pollution are above average. These black counties are suffering while other counties in the nation have seen decreases in the emissions. It’s imperative to correct this environmental injustice.

Safina Beaty is a senior at IU double majoring in Law and Public Policy & Environmental Management with a minor in Spanish. She plans on attending law school in the future and wants to work on helping the environment and mitigating the effects of climate change.

So, You Want to End Affirmative Action? How About You Read the Perceived Consequences?

Posted on May 4, 2023 by habarry

Racial diversity in colleges and universities has been shown to improve over the years. According to the Census Bureau, “more people aged 25 and older earned a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2019 than in 2010. This increase can be seen across racial groups: Asians with bachelor’s degrees rose from 52.4% in 2010 to 58.1% in 2019, White from 33.2% in 2010 to 40.1% in 2019, Black from 19.8% in 2010 to 26.1% in 2019, and Hispanic/Latinx: from 13.9% in 2010 to 18.8% in 2019.” (Courtesy from Bradley University, 2023).

Diversity is a huge educational and social component in colleges and universities that allows students from a range of backgrounds to come together to learn, socialize, and grow. Though diversity has been frequently emphasized in higher education, policymakers and the Courts seem to not understand its importance as they continue to challenge diversity policies like affirmative action programs. Affirmative action increased diversity in higher education and taking these programs away can impact the diversity component of institutions today. As affirmative action continues to be questioned in the courts, we must explore the relationship between diversity and student development in higher education.

For this study, I tested the relationship between interactional diversity and student development, my research question being, “How does interactional diversity like students of different races and backgrounds studying together or taking ethnic-based courses impact student development in colleges and universities?” I hypothesized that students across races studying and interacting with each other outside of the classroom or taking ethnic-based courses will lead to an increase in social and learning outcomes. Social outcomes were measured by looking at students’ ability to get along with someone from a different race/ethnicity, and learning outcomes were measured by looking at critical thinking skills and academic abilities.

Previous research found an association between multiracial interactions and student development in higher education. They found that when students interact with each other, whether it is partying, attending racial workshops, or studying together, they improve civically, and academically. These studies were done in 2003, hence why recent research is necessary as affirmative action is being questioned today.

After collecting survey data from the Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP) at the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) at UCLA, regressions were conducted on R studio to measure the relationship between the independent variables (studying with someone from a different race/ethnicity and taking ethnic-based courses) and the dependent variables (ability to get along with someone from a different background, academic ability, and critical thinking skills). The survey is known as the College Senior Survey, and it is conducted with over 15 million students from 1,900 institutions, asking them about their growth in civic, educational, and diversity outcomes based on their college experiences. I controlled college and high school GPAs for a stronger test. Students reported their growth to be 1 = much weaker to 5 =much stronger. The Significant levels I used are P values <0.05, <.01, <.001.

When I tested the relationship between students taking ethnic-based courses and the ability to have a good relationship with someone from a different race/ethnicity there was a 0.027 significance, meaning there is a positive association. The graph below also shows the results for students taking ethnic-based courses and the ability to get along with someone from a different background. Although there are more responses for students that did not take ethnic-based courses, students that did take the courses landed in the four or five range of increased ability to get along with people from a different race/ethnicity.

There was also a 0.022 significance between taking ethnic-based courses and the ability to think critically.

When I tested the relationship between students of different races/ethnicities studying together and their academic abilities, there was a 1.22e-11 significance, showing that there is a positive association. There was also a 2e-16 significance between students of different races/ethnicities studying together and their ability to think critically.

Overall, this study shows that diversity amongst the student body in an institution is highly associated with increased student development. My findings support most of the previous studies on this topic, and even when I focused on the most recent data, the results are still similar. These findings go against the argument that the ethnic and racial diversity of a student body in an institution has no benefit on their education. This study suggests that diversity contributes to students’ improvement in both educational and social outcomes. As the Supreme Court continues to hear cases about affirmative action policies in higher education, these empirical findings provide educational justification that serves as strong evidence that could potentially persuade decision-makers to continue to support race as a consideration for admissions and affirmative action programs in general.

Haoulia Barry is a Senior at Indiana University Majoring in Law and Public Policy and double minoring in French and Media Persuasion. She hopes to attend law school in the future with a focus on international law.

Public vs. Private: A Demographic Analysis of Juveniles Residential Facilities

Posted on May 4, 2023 by dreinha

Every day, kids across the country find themselves in front of judges facing criminal charges. These judges make decisions on where to remand kids: oftentimes choosing between public and private correctional facilities. These decisions have profound impacts on a kid’s life—and they may be the difference between rehabilitation and continued criminal behavior. The ability to compare the effectiveness of corrections facilities, especially publicly and privately operated facilities, is crucial for understanding the best means of rehabilitation.

However, there is a scarcity of research comparing public and private corrections facilities. We found in our analyses that much of the available criminal justice research fails to account for spurious relationships and misattributes some variables that should have been properly controlled for. Research indicating that “women are less likely to commit violent crime” or “Black youths recidivate at a higher rate than their white peers” serves to further stereotypes, which is already a key area of concern for justice systems.

Our research aims to provide a starting point for future analyses of public and private juvenile facilities. We examine why there is a scarcity of research comparing public and private corrections facilities and compare public and private juvenile residential facilities using publicly available time-series data. Additionally, we use time-series data from 1997-2019 to assess race, gender, and most-severe offense type committed by juveniles held in a variety of facilities. In our analyses, we find a few key differences in public and private juvenile facility populations.

Primarily, we found that status offenders were the only offense type with more juveniles incarcerated privately than publicly. Status offenses include truancy, curfew violations, and age-related offenses like buying tobacco or alcohol under the legal age. Further, youths who were detained for criminal homicide were far more likely to be incarcerated publicly than most other offense types, with overall public incarceration 167.6% percent higher than the privately held rate. This may indicate that private facilities take easier-to-manage cases, requiring fewer resources. This might allow facilities to maximize profits due to less-intensive resource demands and perhaps decreased likelihood of juvenile violence within private facilities.

Secondly, we found gender differences in public and privately held youths are minimal, although we do see a slight increase in male populations in public facilities and a similar decrease in private facilities for offenders between 2015 and 2019. Females made up a much smaller percentage of incarcerated youths, between 4.7 and 5.2% of the total detained population each year.

Our analysis of racial and ethnic demographics in public and private facilities found that the overall demographic makeup of facilities remained relatively consistent from 1997-2019; with a slight overall decline in white populations and an increase in detained Hispanic populations as a percentage of total youth per year. White and Hispanic percentages spiked in privately housed youths in 2013. In the same year, the percentage of black publicly held youths dropped but spiked again in 2015. White public and private percentages moved similarly up until that point. The percentage of Hispanic incarcerated juveniles spiked similarly in 2013 and declined (at a higher rate in private facilities) every year following. For white youths, private incarceration continued to decline, although public incarceration increased at a higher rate than the decline. Black private incarceration declined rapidly after 2015, with public incarceration increasing at a relatively steady rate.

Overall, these differences should raise concerns for any research comparing public and private facilities. The differences in offense type and race are especially notable; with private facilities more likely to house less resource-intense cases. This topic demands further research; especially into whatever caused the spike in Hispanic and white juvenile incarceration in 2013. Further, as long as private facilities are in operation, we should have a means and method of systematically comparing outcomes, not just for policymaking and research purposes, but for the further development of our youth.

Dorothy Reinhard is a graduating senior at Indiana University studying Public Policy Analysis and International Studies with a Certificate of Applied Research and Inquiry.

Examining the Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency on Maternal Mental Health in ACA Expansion and Non-Expansion States

Posted on May 4, 2023 by tcutter

One in five pregnant women experience poor mental health, negatively impacting both the mother and child during pregnancy and after childbirth. In March 2020, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Congress declared a Public Health Emergency (PHE) and imposed a continuous coverage requirement, which stopped state Medicaid programs from unenrolling people from the Medicaid program for any reason. In my study, I measured the effects of the PHE on the mental health outcomes, and trends in insurance enrollment, of pregnant women in ACA-expansion states and non-expansion states.

Under the Medicaid Expansion provision of the Affordable Care Act, individuals who did not qualify for Medicaid coverage under the traditional model are eligible for coverage if their incomes are up to 138% of the federal poverty line (FPL). Due to the continuous coverage rule of the Covid-19 Public Health Emergency, individuals who were pregnant at the time of the emergency’s declaration have obtained Medicaid coverage for a longer period than the traditional period for pregnant individuals, in both Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states. I used data from the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention’s (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) questionnaires for years 2018-2021 to analyze respondents’ answers to a question describing their mental health during pregnancy as a measure of mental health, and a question indicating their primary health coverage to measure their insurance enrollment.

I hypothesized that the PHE would have a positive effect on mental health among pregnant women, have a larger effect on mental health among pregnant women in non-expansion states, and increase the percentage of pregnant women with health insurance. To test these predictions, I first created a series of descriptive line graphs (featured below) to illustrate the trends in mental health and insurance coverage among pregnant women in ACA expansion and non-expansion states.

Trend in average number of “not good” mental health days, ACA-expansion vs. non-ACA expansion states, BRFSS 2018-2021

Trend in Medicaid enrollment, ACA-expansion vs. non-ACA expansion states, BRFSS 2018-2021

Trend in Private Insurance enrollment, ACA-expansion vs. non-ACA expansion states, BRFSS 2018-2021

Trend in Other Insurance enrollment, ACA-expansion vs. non-ACA expansion states, BRFSS 2018-2021

Ultimately, these graphs illustrate that mental health was better among pregnant women in expansion states after the PHE. Further, health insurance coverage trends varied depending on the type of coverage and state expansion status.

Next, I performed difference- in-difference regressions, controlling for race, education, and income in some models, and ultimately settled on a model that controlled for all covariates when analyzing the data. I found that:

The PHE had some improvement on the mental health of pregnant women
The PHE had a larger effect among pregnant women in ACA expansion states than pregnant women in non-expansion states.
The PHE affected the nature of insurance coverage, but the exact mechanism that ties the PHE to insurance coverage is not clear.

Due to the presence of Covid-19 and its lasting impact, it’s difficult to differentiate between the effects of the PHE and Covid. Therefore, while the results were based on statistically significant values revealed by the regressions, it is not certain that other factors not controlled for in the study, such as Covid, did not play a role.

The Covid-19 pandemic was a unique public health and international emergency which presented an array of unprecedented issues and affected subgroups of the population differently, including pregnant women. The PHE was a unique policy intervention aimed at addressing many of these issues, including the overall health of the nation. This research aimed to fill the gap of knowledge surrounding the impact of the PHE on the mental health of pregnant women.

Tateana Cutter will graduate this May with a B.S. in Healthcare Management and Policy and minor in Law and Public Policy from the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. While at IU, Tateana was involved in several student organizations, such as the Black Student Union and Tau Chapter of Alpha Kapp Alpha Sorority, Inc. In addition, Tateana is the recipient of the 2023 P.J. and Hilda Hill Award. In the fall, Tateana will be attending Emory University School of Law to pursue her JD. You can connect with Tateana via Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/tateana-cutter

Time for an Upgrade? New IT’s Effect on Government Attrition

Posted on May 4, 2023 by katellin

When my mom’s office installed a new software program she started coming home late. Instead of meeting us at the bus after school, she would often have to stay late struggling with the program. In lieu of stories about the content of her job, when you asked her about her day, her answers often focused on how frustrated she was with the change and how ready she was to retire.

For employees who started their careers before the World Wide Web, interacting with new complex information technology (IT) can be difficult. Their needs when it comes to training and their willingness to adopt new skills differ from their younger peers. In the federal government, 30% of the workforce is at or near retirement age at 55 years of age or older. As older employees, who often occupy managerial roles, may be pushed to leave their agency in mass, their experience and knowledge leave with them. This has led to fear over brain drain and mass attrition. Worryingly, younger employees aren’t entering and staying in the government at similar rates, in fact only 8% of employees are under 30. A key way agencies are trying to address this issue is by enticing young employees with new tech investments. In just one fiscal year, 2021 to 2022, government-wide new IT spending increased by almost 8%. Despite millions of additional spending, little research has actually been done to investigate how new IT spending impacts the retention of existing older employees.

My research assesses the relationship between new IT spending, technically called Development Modernization Enhancement Information Technology systems (DME IT), and older employees’ likelihood of resigning. While IT may not be a primary factor in attrition, understanding if it affects people’s decisions is vital.

I used data from two sources, the General Services Administration’s Federal IT Dashboard and the Office of Personnel Management’s Federal Viewpoint Survey, focusing on 20 large federal agencies. Some of the agencies include the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of State, and the Treasury. The Federal IT Dashboard offered a line item breakdown of IT Spending for 2021 categorized as “new” and “old” tech. To account for differences in agency size and IT budgets, I found the percent of total spending for each agency spent on new tech. This allowed me to focus only on the new tech spending. I then used individual employee responses for the same agencies for the Federal Viewpoint Survey. I divided those responses into people 40 years of age and older and under 40. The survey doesn’t ask more in-depth questions about age, so this was a limitation of my study. Further research can be done specifically looking at people at or nearing retirement, 55 or older.

I ran a regression looking at how the amount of new IT spending affected both groups’ intention to leave their position. Understanding that there are numerous contributing reasons that people choose to leave their positions, I also controlled for 15 survey questions. Some of the control topics included, job satisfaction, perceived supervisor respect, opportunities for skill development and promotion, and due to 2021 being in the midst of COVID-19 perception of health and safety in the workplace.

After completing my data analysis for both groups, I found that there was no relevant relationship between new IT spending and people older 40 leaving, but there is a positive correlation between new spending and people under 40 staying in their job. This means that federal agencies can implement new tech knowing it has a positive impact on younger employees without fear of IT being a push factor for employees over 40. Ultimately, this research frees agencies to focus their IT governance initiatives on ensuring that training is effective for all age groups.

Kat Ellingson is a graduating senior at Indiana University’s O’Neill School of Public & Environmental Affairs.

Independent Living Programs for Foster Youth: Financial Assistance Programs Appear to Produce Positive Outcomes

Posted on May 4, 2023 by levanson

Foster youth are less prepared to enter adulthood as compared to their non-foster youth, and they lack the resources in order to succeed later on in life. For instance, 87.3% of the general population will complete high school by the age of 18, compared to only 64% of foster youth. Even more shockingly, only 2% of foster youth will go on to attain a bachelor’s degree in their lifetime. Foster youth are also more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors. For example, foster youth have higher than average arrest and incarceration rates, are more likely to have substance abuse issues, and have double the pregnancy rate than the general population.

Due to this disparity in outcomes, states have implemented independent living programs to help foster youth transition to adult life. Independent living programs are state-provided programs intended to equip foster youth with the skills necessary for self-sufficiency. The federal government established the National Youth in Transition Database (NYTD) to collect national data on program outcomes. The NYTD is a federal reporting system that mandates all 50 states to report on what independent living programs foster youth receive, along with their outcomes. Despite the existence of this database, what independent living programs are the most effective in improving self-sufficiency are largely unknown. Using the NYTD, I analyzed what programs produced a higher likelihood of having either a high school degree or above, and a decreased likelihood of engaging in high-risk behaviors such as being incarcerated, engaging in substance abuse, or having children.

I found that financial assistance programs were associated with an increased likelihood of foster youth receiving a high school degree or above and a decreased likelihood of engaging in high-risk behaviors. These results are displayed in the odds ratio graphs below:

Foster youth who received education financial assistance programs – independent living programs designed to provide financial aid to foster youth so they can afford the materials necessary to be successful in school – were 136% more likely to have a high school degree or above. Surprisingly, foster youth who received special education services were 35% less likely to have a high school degree or above.

In regards to substance abuse, foster youth engaging in other financial assistance programs were 19% less likely to engage in substance abuse, while those involved in education financial assistance programs were 30% less likely to do so.

An odds ratio graph showing how different independent living programs impact the likelihood of getting incarcerated.

Foster youth who engaged with special education programs were 32% more likely to be incarcerated, while foster youth who engaged with education financial assistance programs were 43% less likely to be incarcerated.

An odds ratio graph showing how different independent living programs impact the likelihood of having children.

Finally, foster youth who were provided with family support and healthy marriage education programs were 53% more likely to have children. On the other hand, foster youth who engaged in education financial assistance programs were 29% less likely to have children.

My findings clearly indicate that financial assistance programs were the most effective in increasing educational attainment and decreasing high-risk behaviors. However, it is important to note that these programs may have certain qualifications that could have influenced the results. For instance, special education programs were associated with a decreased likelihood of obtaining a high school degree or above, but this may be because these programs are targeted toward youth with learning disabilities, the existence of which may impact their ability to get a high school degree or higher. On the other hand, it is still surprising that special education programs were associated with an increased likelihood of being incarcerated. Due to these unknowns, further research is needed to determine why independent living programs, such as special education programs, were associated with more negative outcomes. This research can help to inform states on how to better improve their programs to best meet the needs of the foster youth who receive them.

Despite the mechanisms behind these results remaining unknown, my research has helped to determine that financial assistance programs are effective in improving outcomes for foster youth. States can use this research to invest more into their existing financial assistance programs to better meet the needs of foster youth to prepare them to live self-sufficiently.

Lydia Evanson is a senior at Indiana University studying Law and Public Policy at the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Lydia is currently the student director of the IU Books and Beyond Project and is passionate about increasing equal access to education and improving conditions for foster youth. Next year, she plans to continue her education at IU Maurer School of Law.

Is Direct Democracy Tied to Declining Government Trust?

Posted on May 4, 2023 by janewrig

Not only does public opinion data show that trust in government is declining, but rhetoric of stolen elections, the January 6^th riot at the U.S. Capitol, and intense political polarization have characterized the contemporary American political scene as one of instability and dissatisfaction. Government trust is important to the functioning of democracy and my research examines if engaging citizens through direct democracy impacts public opinion.

Direct democracy refers to governance that directly involves citizens in legislative processes. This contrasts with traditional representative democracy where people vote for people who represent them and create laws. Citizen-initiated ballot processes are a type of direct democracy mechanism that allow citizens to propose and vote directly on laws and constitutional amendments.

Ballot initiatives have made headlines in the recent 2022 midterm election for their use in changing state laws about abortion access. For example, citizens in Michigan initiated Proposal 3, the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative, to establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. While this was an effective way for the people of Michigan to pass a law that represented majority interest, not all citizens have the opportunity to initiate and vote on laws and referenda. Only 26 out of the 50 U.S. states have citizen-initiated ballot processes.

So, do these processes, which directly involve citizens in the process of lawmaking, impact their attitudes about government and democracy? I used data from the American Institutional Confidence Poll and Ballotpedia to examine if living in a ballot initiative state impacted an individual’s satisfaction in democracy. My analysis used ordinal logistic models and controlled for variables such as political party identification and the number of ballot initiatives on a state’s ballot. The number of ballot initiatives variable was determined by counting how many citizen-initiated ballots were on a state’s ballot in the 2016 election, the most recent election prior to when the survey was conducted in 2018.

Results from my study found that while just the presence of ballot initiatives was not a significant factor in explaining people’s political trust, the number of initiatives on the ballot in a state was associated with people being more likely to be satisfied with democracy. This suggests that exposure to direct democracy matters, but a state simply having the process does not. This makes sense, because if a state has not had many citizen-initiated ballot initiatives on the ballot, or at least not one in the recent election, a person may not know about their opportunity for direct involvement, and therefore it may not impact their attitude about democracy.

The number of ballot initiatives was not only statistically significant, but people in states with more ballot initiatives were more likely to be satisfied in democracy than citizens in states with less ballot initiatives. A similar positive relationship was found between the number of ballot initiatives and the likelihood that someone thought that elections were free and fair.

This same relationship was not found when looking at the relationship between the number of ballot initiatives in an individual’s state of residence and their trust in state government. My analysis showed that the number of ballot initiatives was not statistically significant in an individual’s perception of state government.

These results suggest that ballot initiatives might influence people’s attitudes about government processes more than government outcomes or implementation of policies. The number of ballot initiatives was significant in people’s attitudes about democracy and elections—both aspects of governance that concern government processes—but not in their confidence in state government, something that includes government outcomes and implementation of policies.

Thus, my results suggest that ballot initiative processes may contribute to people’s sense of procedural justice, the idea that the process is fair, but may not actually influence their sense of political efficacy, or the idea that they have power to change political outcomes. In other words, ballot initiatives may make people have more positive attitudes about government processes, but not necessarily change how they feel about government actions and outcomes.

My study provides insights into the importance of how people interact with government and suggests that creating fair government processes that foster public participation might help increase people’s satisfaction in democracy. Where American society is characterized by failing trust in government and increasingly uncivil discourse, understanding these relationships is important for improving citizen engagement and ultimately strengthening democracy.

Jane Wright is a senior studying policy analysis at the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Passionate about getting fellow students civically engaged, Jane is involved with the organization Women in Government at IU and works as a Peer Educator at the O’Neill Career Hub. Jane plans to continue her education by earning a Master of Public Policy and focusing on issues related to governance and democratic reform.

Can We Know the Qualities of Success? Lessons for How to Analyze the Factors Affecting a Mediated Settlement

Posted on May 4, 2023 by rrouch

In the field of alternative dispute resolution, much research has gone into how the procedural issues in a mediated settlement can affect its outcome. Procedural issues, meaning issues that arise in the process of settling the dispute, are important to understand as much of the benefit from participating in alternative dispute resolution comes from a more equitable and more comprehensive process than the traditional method of litigation. What is not well understood, however, is how the actual issues being disputed over can affect the quality of the outcome of a dispute.

Take, for example, the case of Mr. and Mrs. Johnson. For many years, the Johnsons enjoyed taking their family on the boat the couple owned and spending time boating around the open waters. Unfortunately, after some years of marriage, Mr. and Mrs. Johnson decided to get a divorce. If Mr. Johnson had no emotional attachment to the boat, he likely would have used it like just another bargaining chip in the division of the couple’s property. However, Mr. Johnson’s family has had this boat for many generations now and it is how he feels attached to his ancestors. Since he has an attachment to this boat, Mr. Johnson decided to fight as hard as possible to keep the boat in his possession, leading to a particularly difficult divorce settlement.

In my research, I refer to issues such as the Johnson’s family boat as the substantive issues of a dispute. These are issues such as who gets to keep the house in a divorce; they are tangible things whose fate is in contention in a dispute. Since such issues are of the utmost importance to those participating in disputes it is important to understand how their presence in a given dispute could affect its outcome. To examine this phenomenon, I looked at our nation’s legal system’s treatment of mediated settlements in family law.

Using cases gathered from the Mitchell Hamline School of Law Mediated Case Law Database, I coded 207 court cases for whether certain substantive issues that are common in family law were present. Family law and the issues that arise in it such as alimony, child custody, and distribution of property were chosen as the focus of my study as disputants are likely to have strong feelings regarding their outcome. I also coded each case for if the mediated settlement between the parties was upheld by the judicial system or not.

Percentage of All Cases in Which a Substantive Issue was Present

Once each case was coded for which substantive issues were present, I queried the dataset and grouped substantive issues together in pairs. Once I queried them, I looked to see if issues that are more difficult to find common ground and compromise over were more prevalent in cases with mediated settlements that were not upheld. I also looked to see if issues that allowed disputants to expand the value available in a dispute and compromise over shared interests resulted in mediated settlements that were upheld more often.

Unfortunately, this strategy didn’t reveal any insights into how the substantive issues affect the quality of a mediated settlement. There was no clear correlation between the issues and the outcome, counter to my hypothesis that there would be. This means that it may be the case that having strong substantive issues is not related to case outcomes.

At the same time, it might be that research on this topic should be done in a different way. First, it would be valuable to take a comprehensive approach to data analysis and code every field of law in the database I used for substantive issues present. This would provide more data points for researchers to use and allow for greater insights into the impact of substantive issues in mediation.

Another lesson I learned through this process is working with those who practice dispute resolution to fill in the gaps in the data could be valuable. Since the cases used in this study are all at the appellate level, they are simply snapshots of the mediated settlements due to the scope of appellate review. Speaking with judges who work in family law could reveal why some cases do or do not reach the appellate level or are even brought to trial. Furthermore, working with mediators themselves could reveal how they understand substantive issues affect the quality of the outcomes of mediated settlements and which issues affect quality more than others.

Finally, there were many procedural factors in the cases I coded that I could not analyze due to the scope of this analysis. Taking an approach that codes both the substantive and procedural issues present in a dispute would be valuable for understanding how every factor in a mediated settlement affects its outcome. This would be a comprehensive endeavor that would require multiple coders to do properly, but ultimately it could allow practitioners to use a comprehensive understanding of what can affect the quality of a dispute to provide higher-quality resolution to those in conflict.

Reed Rouch is a senior at Indiana University Bloomington receiving his Bachelors of Science in Public Affairs from the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Reed is majoring in Law and Public Policy with a particular interest in the law. After graduating he hopes to spend a year serving others before beginning the process of obtaining his law degree.

Power to the States: Two Surprising Ways Renewable Energy Resources Could Impact a State’s Adoption of Green Standards!

Posted on May 4, 2023 by evabrung

Today, the United States’ electricity mix is primarily generated by climate-change causing, air-polluting fossil fuels. More than 60% of the nation’s total generation comes from natural gas, coal, and petroleum. Recent headlines have celebrated the fact that renewable energy generation–at 21.5%– finally surpassed coal (19.5%) for the first time in 2022. However, there is still a long way to go to achieve our climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goals.

One tool that has contributed to the U.S.’s increasing generation of renewable energy is Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). The goal of an RPS is to change the electricity generation in a state by setting minimum percentage requirements from renewable sources such as solar, wind, hydropower, or geothermal energy.

In 1983, Iowa passed the first Renewable Portfolio Standard in the United States. Since then, more than 37 states have adopted an RPS. Each state varies in its percentage target, stringency (i.e., voluntary v. mandatory), eligible renewable sources, and the timeline for implementation. Seven states have voluntary standards–including Indiana–while the rest have more stringent mandatory requirements.

The amount of renewable resources in a state varies immensely as solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal resources are not evenly distributed. Figure 2 showcases the total renewable resource potential in each state.

Despite Indiana’s high renewable potential as seen in the map, more than 90% of our electricity is still generated by coal and natural gas. This is largely because we have a weak RPS, which is a voluntary requirement for utilities to generate 10% of electricity from renewables.

Figure 2: Estimated total potential renewable resource generation of solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower resources. Sourced from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016.

My research sought to determine what factors shape a state’s adoption of an RPS, and how those same factors can increase the stringency of these standards. Some states, like Virginia, have stringent standards that require 100% of electricity to come from renewable resources by 2045. With similar resource endowments in Indiana and Virginia as shown in Figure 2, what factors are at play that cause these two states’ RPSs to differ?

To answer this question, I took a look at the renewable energy potential, unemployment rate, and quantitative measures of political ideology in a state. This will help to determine if renewable resource potential is important for RPS adoption and stringency, or if economic conditions and/or political ideology are more important. I have found that political ideology and unemployment rate are significant factors that lead to a state adopting an RPS. Surprisingly, renewable energy potential was not found to impact RPS adoption.

However, having high renewable resources in a state does increase the stringency of an RPS. So while potential energy is not an important factor when it comes to first adopting an RPS, it is a key factor in determining how state legislators decide to mandate renewables in electricity generation.

This finding aligns well with the general trends shown in Figure 2. While Indiana has high renewable potential, it was the political ideology and unemployment rate that had a larger impact on choosing not to adopt a mandatory RPS.

These findings can assist future states in their attempt to pass an RPS by framing the policy in terms of economic benefits and political ideology. This can help the U.S. increase our renewable energy generation and decrease our reliance on fossil fuels, to reach our clean energy future!

Eva Brungard is a senior at the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs graduating in May 2023 with a BS in Public Affairs. She majored in Policy Analysis with minors in Political Science and Economics. After graduation, she will pursue a Master of Public Policy at Duke University.

Investigating Physical Controls of Nitrogen Isotopes in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Posted on May 4, 2023 by nlovinel

The news is full these days with stories of increasing droughts and floods. These events, which will increase as climate change continues, have clear economic impacts.

As an environmental scientist however, I am interested in how climate change may impact other natural systems. One such system is the nitrogen cycle, which describes the transfer of this nutrient to various phases of the environment (Figure 1). Nitrogen is an essential nutrient for all forms of life. On an individual level, it makes up proteins and DNA. On an ecological level it acts as the major limiting factor for plant growth, impacting the vegetation and all sorts of system dynamics. The main goal of this thesis is to explore if climate has any effect on nitrogen cycling, so that further studies on climate change may be possible.

Figure 1: The terrestrial nitrogen cycle. The specifics of which compounds are produced is not necessary. The key takeaway is that these transformations are driven by bacteria and plants. Also, its all connected, making for a complex system.

To understand if climate exhibits control over nitrogen cycling, nitrogen cycling must be quantified. This is done using nitrogen isotopes, which are two atoms of nitrogen that differ in the atomic mass. Using specialized instruments, we can closely measure the ratio of heavy and rare ¹⁵N to light and abundant ¹⁴N (expressed as δ¹⁵N). δ¹⁵N changes as nitrogen undergoes different reactions in the soil. Therefore, if I see δ¹⁵N vary predictably with climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, growing season), I can conclude that climate exhibits some control over nitrogen cycling.

In addition to the climatic variables, I also included physiochemical variables, namely pH and organic carbon content. These physiochemical variables are more local descriptors, as opposed to the regional descriptors of climatic variables. I included them in the analyses to compare to the climatic variables. I am predicting that climate’s effect on nitrogen content in soils will be indirect, where climate acts on vegetation and soil processes, which both directly affect δ¹⁵N (Figure 2). pH and soil carbon are more indicative of the direct links to δ¹⁵N. Previous studies have been able to construct predictive models of δ¹⁵N on a regional scale using climatic AND physiochemical variables. I had hoped to recreate such a model using multiple regression analysis on my dataset of the United States.

This exploration is possible due to the establishment of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). NEON is an exciting database established in 2019 which collects data across the United States and opens up the doors for all sorts of ecological studies.

Figure 2: Conceptual model of the effect of climate on soil nitrogen content (measured as δ15N). Arrows indicate a direct effect. Listed aspects of climate, soil processes, and soil N content are non-exhaustive and are intended to illustrate some aspects that are discussed in this paper. Notably, there is no arrow from climate to soil N content, as climate is predicted to have indirect control over soil N content.

Moving to the results, I saw that that climate and δ¹⁵N had weak relationships. In order of strength of relationship with δ¹⁵N (determined via bivariate regression) we have length of growing season (highest), mean annual temperature, and mean annual precipitation (lowest).

Relationships between pH and δ¹⁵N as well as organic carbon content and δ¹⁵N were much higher than the climatic variables. This is not entirely unexpected, as I described that these physiochemical variables are more of a local predictor and may play a more direct role in controlling the soil nitrogen content. We can visually see how pH has a stronger relationship with δ¹⁵N than mean annual temperature and δ¹⁵N (Figures 3 and 4). This is confirmed with the R²values, which quantify the strength of the relationship. Interestingly the association of pH and δ¹⁵N is so high, that it is the only variable which contributed to the predictive model I had hoped to establish using a multiple regression.

Figure 3: Scatter plot (bivariate regression) of δ15N and Mean Annual Temperature

Figure 4: Scatter plot of δ15N and Soil pH

Overall, the analyses show that climate has some control on δ¹⁵N, but the strength of these controls was not as high as I had predicted. If we look back at the conceptual model, we can understand that climate is rather far removed from nitrogen cycling, likely due to the fact that climate’s effects are all mediated through vegetation and microorganisms. This brings up more questions, however. As the climate changes how would nitrogen cycling respond? This brings up further questions of response time. This of course requires further studies, but really showcases how exciting and complex this topic can be. As NEON continues to gather data, further studies on such an important and fascinating topic will be possible.

Nico Lovinello is a graduating senior studying environmental science at the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs.