What were the Impacts of International Accountability Mechanisms on the Philippine War on Drugs?

As I began delving into data on the death tolls from the War on Drugs, I noticed an interesting trend. Fatalities peaked the year former President Duterte was inaugurated in 2016, at 3,547 deaths, reflecting the beginning of a deadly anti-drug campaign. 

Following the initial spike in deaths, there was a significant decline in the following year. By 2017, the total decreased to 2,294 deaths, a 35% reduction. This downward trend steadily continued, with fatalities dropping to 1,452 in 2018. By 2019, the deaths reached 1,123, and by 2020, the reported death toll was 904. In 2021, the numbers further declined to 694, and by 2022, which marks the end of the war on drugs, fatalities reached an all-time low at 455 deaths. 

The extrajudicial killings from the War on Drugs show a consistent downward trend each year, raising the question: what exactly caused this decline?

Past research focuses on the impact of local internal accountability mechanisms, such as controversies surrounding corruption, injustices related to extrajudicial killings, and Philippine Senate investigations (Iglesias, 2023). This study aims to provide a broader understanding of the mechanisms that effectively curbed the War on Drugs, not only domestically but on the international scale. Globally renowned organizations, i.e.: International Accountability Mechanisms (within the context of this research) include the United Nations (UN) and the International Criminal Court (ICC), who have extensively reported on the situation. To further expand the scope, this research incorporates insights from international press agencies like Reuters, which have monitored and reported on the Philippines, as well as Human Rights Watch, a prominent international non-governmental organization. 

This research aims to also provide the broader picture and thus understand the impact of International Accountability Mechanisms on presidential rhetoric as well. 

Research Question

“What were the impact of international accountability mechanisms on curbing the Philippine War on Drug under former President Duterte?”

Hypotheses 

Hypothesis 1: An intensification of international accountability mechanisms is expected to lead to a decrease in extrajudicial killings. 

Hypothesis 2: International accountability mechanisms are expected to decrease violent and inflammatory rhetoric in former President Duterte’s speeches. 

Finally, the null hypothesis is that international accountability mechanisms had no impact on the decrease in violence, and subsequently, had no effect on a change in presidential rhetoric. 

Data

This research uses mixed collection methods, both quantitative and qualitative data. The quantitative information is sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). The quantitative data, the number of extrajudicial killings provided by the ACLED, is contrasted with international accountability mechanisms, which are defined as the UN, the ICC, Reuters, and Human Rights Watch. 

The qualitative data consists of 6 of Duterte’s State of the Nation Addresses (SONA’s). The president’s SONAs were initially sourced from the Malacañang palace (Philippines), and all 6 speeches were transcribed by Rappler. Rappler is a Filipino news website. 

Figure 2. Rodrigo Duterte speeches State of the Nation Addresses (SONA)

Findings:

Hypothesis 1: Proven. International accountability mechanisms contribute to a decline in extrajudicial killings

Data from the ACLED shows that starting in 2016, the number of extrajudicial killings peaked, and then steadily decreased the years following. This decline can be attributed to a number of factors, both internal and external. International accountability mechanisms from the UN, ICC, Reuters and Human Rights Watch had an impact in the decline in violence. 

Hypothesis 2: Disproven. The more criticism former President Duterte receives, the more inflamed and violent his rhetoric becomes.

Presidential rhetoric has shown an opposite effect, and international accountability mechanisms seemed to have had an adverse effect, resulting in an increase in violent rhetoric on President Duterte’s end. As the UN and ICC began probing into the situation that was occurring in the Philippines, the President’s rhetoric became more and more incendiary and contained increasingly violent language.

Conclusion

This research underscores the importance of sustained pressure from these mechanisms as an effective way to combat grave human rights violations (extrajudicial killings). Accordingly, there is a need for greater collaboration with local organizations to amplify the effectiveness of international accountability mechanisms.

Understanding the importance of international accountability mechanisms contributes to a broader understanding of soft authoritarian regimes (such as the Philippines). Identifying challenges in holding the government accountable sheds light on the complexities involved in ensuring justice and accountability for alleged human rights abuses. This information is essential for not only the international community, but to policymakers and human rights advocates, helping them devise effective strategies for promoting human rights and holding governments accountable for their actions. 

Anna Trautmann is a senior from the Philippines in the O’Neill Honors Program studying Law and Public Policy and French. Growing up in the Philippines, she first handedly witnessed Duterte’s War on Drugs, which motivated her to conduct research on this topic. On the side, she works as a research assistant for the School of Public Health, as well as a Teaching Assistant and Undergraduate Student Engagement Coordinator for O’Neill!