The effects of political polarization are felt at a national level every time news of a new riot makes it into mainstream media coverage. Taylor Longhitano sought to discover whether polarization is being fueled in state politics as well by studying campaign ads for gubernatorial elections in Illinois. Findings show that not only are campaigns using increasingly negative language, but state-level candidates are also starting to campaign on federal issues.
The riots following the 2016 election of Donald Trump and the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol after Joe Biden’s 2020 election are still fresh in the nation’s memory. These events point to a growing lack of trust in our democratic process and the other political party. But how did we get here?
Polarization has been on the rise at the national level, both in voting behavior and in the negative opinions that voters have about members of the other party. Nationalization theory suggests that state politics are increasingly seen through the lens of national politics. Applying this theory to national polarization trends predicts an increase in political polarization at the state level. My research confirms that this unfortunate phenomenon is occurring.
By analyzing attack ads from the 2010 and 2018 campaigns for Illinois Governor, I found three key results relating to increased political polarization. First, words with negative connotations are used more often in 2018 than in 2010. Emotions like anger, fear, sadness, and disgust all make up a larger percentage of 2018 attack ads than they do in ads from 2010.
Second, not only are negative words being used more, but the words themselves are also getting nastier. Words used in attack ads were sorted on a scale of +5 (most positive) to -5 (most negative). While mildly positive words are most common by a small margin, mildly negative words increased significantly in comparison to the share of words overall from 2010 to 2018. Additionally, strongly negative words (with a score of -4) were introduced in 2018, which include multiple mentions of “hell,” “damn,” and “fucking” (although fucking was partially bleeped for the sake of being aired on television).
Finally, attacks focused on the president become a prominent part of the other party’s campaign for governor in 2018. Donald Trump’s name was mentioned by the Democratic candidate 28 times in attack ads from 2018, while Barack Obama was not mentioned at all by the Republican candidate in 2010. This means that while the 2010 campaign for governor focused almost entirely on state issues, candidates in the 2018 election expected (and encouraged) voters to base their decision on national politics.
The political rioting that seems to be increasingly common in our society suggests that the increasing political polarization my research observed is interfering with voter confidence in American democracy and the peaceful transition of power. Is our democracy in danger? It’s debatable.
Political tensions ebb and flow throughout our history, and America has always managed to weather the storm in the past. However, others argue that the threats to democracy we face today are greater than ever before. Rather than wait and hope for the best, we can take action to improve our democratic process.
While there are various possibilities for reform, my favorite would be to implement rank choice voting in state elections. Instead of putting all their eggs in one basket, voters can list candidates in order of their preference. This makes sure their vote still matters, even if their first-choice candidate only receives a small share of votes.
Implementing rank choice voting addresses the country’s rising political polarization by creating an incentive to make campaigns more civil, since a candidate wouldn’t want to alienate voters from another party who may select them as a second choice. It also makes it more feasible to elect third party candidates, which would create the need for legislators to collaborate and compromise if neither main party holds a majority of seats in the statehouse.
Taking action to reform our democracy now can make sure we prevent our political wars of words from escalating into physical wars of violence.
Taylor Longhitano is a third-year student at the Indiana University O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Taylor will begin graduate coursework in Fall 2022 to receive her Master of Public Affairs through the O’Neill Accelerated Masters Program. This research was completed as part of the O’Neill Honors Program. Contact: tlonghit@iu.edu
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