A 1994 paper by the geographer-physicist duo, Gould & Wallace (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/04353684.1994.11879669 ) showed the mistakes of traditional epidemiologists in understanding the spread of AIDS due to their focus on the continuous time series differential equations and not on the spatial heterodoxy of quantized spatial jumps in AIDS diffusion. A quarter century later, with enormous progress in network epidemiology, spatial epidemiology, spatial statistics and the new field of network science we are still held back by temporal epidemiology, or at the most macro and meso scale spatial models (global and country/regional based units). Micro-level spatial models are absent. Moreover, we need a hierarchical spatial (macro-meso- micro) and temporal interaction model to understand this pandemic. Gould & Wallace, through a series of discoveries, showed the complex ‘backcloth’ of transportation vectors (streets, highways, air routes etc) that pushed the AIDS pandemic. The difference between AIDS and COVID2 is that latter is way faster. Here, time is squished, reducing further the value of the temporal differential equations that depend of stability (2nd order differentials require equilibrium). So the only way out is controlling micro-scale spatial diffusion.

What is spatial diffusion?

What are the tools to stop spatial diffusion?

 

[use per capita gas use to show transportation footprint of rich nations and hence their contact network larger than poor countries; Greece having less problems than richer neighbors; Vietnam than China (adjusted for quarantine quality)