Last fall, economists with Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business were optimistic that 2015 might be the nation’s best economic year since the Great Recession of 2008.
Not so much, it turned out.
Despite indications that post-recession growth might exceed a “2 percent slog,” unfavorable international conditions and revised 2013-14 data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis dashed such hopes. Entering 2016, the panel of economists — which released its 2016 projections during Wednesday events in Indianapolis and Bloomington — are considerably more cautious on the prospects of solid economic gains for the coming year.
“We see little reason for any real optimism,” said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU and a member of the panel.
“We think the economy can match the past year, or perhaps do a little better. For growth to move significantly higher, some sectors will need to improve relative to this year. The sectors that have been solid, such as consumer spending and housing, could hold their own but realistically have only limited upside. Other sectors, including business investment, international trade and government spending, seem unlikely to fill the void.”
For 2016, IU Kelley School economists expect an average of 2.5 percent real output growth. That would improve upon 2015’s results, but only be equal to 2014 — and continue a pattern that has persisted since 2011.
Through Nov. 20, the panel will tour other parts of the state to present its national, state and local economic outlook. For a list of upcoming presentations, read here. For more information about the 2016 outlook, read here.
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